000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1346 UTC Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is located near 15.7N 113.6W at 22/1500 UTC moving W or 270 degrees at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Ivo is anticipated to move generally north- northwestward this weekend. This trajectory will take Ivo just outside of the offshore waters of Mexico, with tropical storm force winds expected to brush across the western boundary of the offshore forecast zones, particularly from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, zone PMZ015, from Fri morning to Sat morning. Strong southeast winds and rough seas of 8-12 ft will move NW across the waters of SW Mexico today, including the area of Cabo Corrientes, and across the waters between Las Marias Islands and the southern tip of Baja California this evening through early Fri. Ivo could become a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow, but should begin to weaken on Saturday as it moves over cooler eastern Pacific waters and in more stable air. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W N of 06N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave also extends northward across Oaxaca, Mexico. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure over northern Colombia to 07N85W to 11N102W, then continues W of T.S. Ivo from 13N122W to 1012 mb low pressure near 14N130W to 13N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within about 180 nm SW of a line from 16N105W to 13N103W to 10N101W. Similar convection is also observed from 11N to 14N between 122W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. Expect very active weather and rough marine conditions between the coast of Mexico and Ivo as it passes by the area through Fri night. The pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure located northwest of the area near 32N135W and a trough along Baja California will produce moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte to the north of Punta Eugenia through Fri. Seas to 8 ft are expected across these northern waters through tonight primarily in NW swell. To the east of the trough, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California through Fri. Seas will reach 6-7 ft and possibly briefly 8 ft at the peak of these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is expected to produce only gentle to moderate winds across the region for the next several days. Long period cross equatorial SW swell will continue in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri, building seas to 6 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The aforementioned high pressure located near 32N135W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters to near 22N122W. This system will remain nearly stationary over the next 48 hours producing mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 20N. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong SW to W winds S of the monsoon trough, particularly between 105W and 125W, in response to the strengthening of Tropical Storm Ivo. As the monsoon through continues to lift northward with the NW moving Ivo, fresh to strong SW monsoonal winds will create wind waves that will combine with SW swell to produce seas of up to 10 or 11 ft S of 15N between 105W and 125W into early Friday. $$ GR