000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221013 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is located near 15.8N 112.5W, or about 450 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Ivo is moving W or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 50 kt gusting to 60 kt. Ivo is expected to begin to veer WNW today and then turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed late today through tonight, and then turn more NNW into the weekend. This trajectory will take Ivo just outside of the offshore waters of Mexico, with tropical storm force winds expected to brush across the western boundary of the zones offshore of Cabo Corrientes to southern and central Baja California Fri night through Sat night. Strong southeast winds and rough seas of 8-12 ft will move NW across the waters of SW Mexico today, across the waters of Cabo Corrientes, and approach the southern tip of Baja today through early Fri. Modest strengthening of Ivo is expected during through Fri afternoon, when Ivo is expected to become a minimal hurricane Friday afternoon through night, before beginning a slow weakening trend offshore of Baja California. As Ivo moves NNW Fri night through Sat night, offshore and parallel to the Baja California coast, it will move across increasingly cooler waters and more stable air, and weaken, becoming a minimal tropical storm Sat night offshore of Punta Eugenia, then a post-tropical remnant low by Sun night, offshore of Baja California Norte. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W N of 06N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave also extends northward across Oaxaca into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 07.5N to 16N between 89W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N79W TO 14N106W, then resumes west of Tropical Storm Ivo from 14N117W TO 15N125W to low pres near 14.5N130W to beyond 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 16N between 89W and 107W, within 180 nm S of the trough between 120W and 127W, and within 60 nm either side of the trough between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. Expect very active weather and rough marine conditions between the coast of Mexico and Ivo as it passes by the area through Fri night. The pressure gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and a low pressure trough along Baja California will produce moderate NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte to the north of Punta Eugenia through Fri. Seas to 8 ft are expected across these northern waters through tonight in mixed NW and N swell. To the east of the trough, southerly winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each night through the remainder off the week across the far northern Gulf of California waters. Seas will reach 6-7 ft and possibly briefly 8 ft at the peak of these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is expected to produce only gentle to moderate winds across the region for the next several days. Long period cross equatorial SW swell will continue in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thursday, building seas to 6 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high pressure located near 31N136W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters to near 24N118W. This system will remain nearly stationary over the next 48 hours producing mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 20N. Winds are expected to increase S of the monsoon trough, particularly between 103W and 124W, in response to the strengthening of Tropical Storm Ivo. As the monsoon through continues to lift northward with the NW moving Ivo, fresh to strong SW monsoonal winds will create wind waves that will combine with SW swell to produce seas of up to 10 or 11 ft S of 15N between 100W and 120W into early Friday. $$ Stripling