000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220253 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0250 UTC Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is located about 420 nm SW of Manzanillo, Mexico, with center near 16.1N 111.3W moving WNW or 285 degrees at 16 kt. A turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Ivo will move to 16.5N 113.2W Thu morning, 17.6N 114.9W Thu evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.8N 116.0W Fri morning, 20.0N 116.9W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 117.7W Sat morning. Ivo will remain a tropical storm near 23.2N 118.5W Sat evening, but weaken to a post-tropical cyclone Sunday near 26.4N 120.4W. Ivo will become a remnant low Monday near 28.8N 121.8W. This tropical cyclone is forecast to move parallel and very close to the western end of the offshore forecast waters. As a result, part of its circulation will continue to affect these waters. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 S semicircle from the center. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is along located across a very broad area from 10N to 20N between 101W and 118W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W N of 06N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave also extends northward across Oaxaca into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located from 08N to 15N between 90W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N80W TO 13N95W TO 12N102W TO 16N106W. The trough then reforms west of Tropical Storm Ivo from 14N112W to 16N126W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N between 82W and 90W and from 09N to 15N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details about recently Tropical Storm Ivo. The pressure gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and a low pressure trough along Baja California will produce fresh winds tonight offshore Baja California Norte N of 27N and E of 120W. Seas to near 8 ft are possible in this region through Thursday. To the east of the trough, southerly winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each night through the remainder off the week for the northern Gulf of California waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is expected to produce only gentle to moderate winds across the region for the next several days. Long period cross equatorial SW swell will continue in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thursday, building seas to 6 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1021 mb high pressure located near 31N134W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. This system will remain nearly stationary over the next 48 hours producing mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 20N. Winds are expected to increase S of the monsoon trough, particularly between 105W and 120W, in response to the strengthening of Tropical Storm Ivo. As the monsoon through continues to lift northward fresh to strong SW monsoonal winds will create wind waves that will combine with SW swell to produce seas of up to 10 or 11 ft S of 15N between 100W and 120W into early Friday. $$ KONARIK