000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212110 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2038 UTC Wed Aug 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical depression TEN-E, located about 330 nm southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico has been upgraded at 21/2100 UTC to Tropical Storm Ivo. At this time, it is centered near 15.8N 109.5W moving WNW or 285 degrees at 17 kt. A turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ivo will move to 16.4N 111.6W Thu morning, 17.2N 113.8W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.2N 115.3W Fri morning, 19.5N 116.4W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.5N 117.9W Sat afternoon. Ivo will change little in intensity as it moves to 25.8N 119.9W Sun afternoon, and then weaken to a post-tropical cyclone near 28.8N 121.9W Mon. This tropical cyclone is forecast to move parallel and very close to the western end of the offshore forecast waters. As a result, part of its circulation will continue to affect these waters. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm S semicircle. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is located elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 103W and 115W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W N of 05N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave also extends northward across southern Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located from 09N to 15N between 94W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low over northern Colombia to 08N80W to 12N95W to 16N105W, then continues west of Tropical Storm Ivo from 13N110W to 16N123W to 1014 mb low near 15N129W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N between 80W and 94W and from 08N and 13N between 99W and 103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details about recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ivo. The pressure gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and low pressure across the northern Gulf of California is producing fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore of Baja California N of 28N E of 120W. This is expected to continue before retreating to the NW evening. These winds will bring seas to 8 ft N of 28N between 120W and 123W on Thu. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California this evening through Fri. A middle to upper level trough extending from the SW Gulf of Mexico WSW across central Mexico has maintained unstable upper level conditions and is supporting ongoing moderate to strong convection across the waters from Cabo Corrientes to the Mazatlan area. The trough will remain in place through tonight and is expected to support another round of late afternoon and night time convection across this area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is expected to produce only gentle to moderate winds across the region for the next several days. Long period cross equatorial SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today, building seas to 6 to 7 ft late today into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak low pressure of 1014 mb has reformed near 15N129W, where a trough previously existed. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of this low from 10N to 16N between 129W and 139W. Some 8 to 10 ft seas are associated with this low from 12N to 16N between 127N and 131N. These seas will continue through Thursday, before the low weakens further and seas fall below 8 ft. A 1022 mb high pressure located near 31N134W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. This system will remain nearly stationary over the next 48 hours producing mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 20N. Winds are expected to increase S of the monsoon trough, particularly between 105W and 120W, in response to the strengthening of Tropical Storm Ivo. As the monsoon through continues to lift northward fresh to strong SW monsoonal winds will create wind waves that will combine with SW swell to produce seas of up to 10 or 11 ft S of 15N between 100W and 120W through Thursday night. $$ KONARIK