000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202037 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2036 UTC Tue Aug 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system of 1008 mb is located near 14N101W or about 200 miles south of Guerrero. This feature continues to produce a large area of showers cloudiness and thunderstorms. Currently, most of the strongest convection associated with this low remains over offshore forecast waters. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is located from 12N to 17N between 98W and 107W. Environmental conditions are conductive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt, parallel and just offshore the coast of Mexico. This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this low an 80 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A Gale Warning is now in effect for Mexican offshore waters from Acapulco to Sinaloa as well as the southern parts of Baja California Sur. Farther west, another low pressure system located near 16N123W or about 100 miles WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly from 13N to 18N between 123W and 130W, on the west side of the low. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development this week, and a tropical depression may form in the next couple of days as the system moves W around 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a 40 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours. Fresh to locally strong winds within about 150 nm of the center of this system are producing seas of 8 to 10 ft. These seas will likely continue through late week. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information on both of these lows. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis has emerged from Central America and is now located along 89W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 04N to 11N between 80W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to low pressure near 14N101W to 11N110W to another low pressure near 16N123W to 11N140W. In additional to convection noted with the lows near 101W and 123W and the tropical wave along 89W, scattered moderate convection is occurring between 09N and 17N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area offshore Oaxaca. High pressure well northwest of the area will promote fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte through Wed. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce fresh to strong SE to S winds over the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is producing only gentle to moderate winds across the region for the next several days. Long-period cross equatorial SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Wed, building seas to 6 to 7 ft late Wed into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area near 16N122W. A 1020 mb high pressure located near 30N128W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. This system will remain nearly stationary over the next 48 hours producing mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in moderate to fresh trade winds S of 20N. Wind are expected to increase S of the monsoon trough Wed through Thu night, particularly between 105W and 120W. The monsoon trough may lift northward to near 15N as the low pressure system located near Mexico progresses west-northwestward. As the monsoon trough pulls northward, combined SW swell and wind waves south of the trough may produce seas of up to 10 ft. $$ KONARIK