000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 912 UTC Tue Aug 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... 1008 mb low pressure located near 13.5N98W is associated with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection north of 12N between 94W and 104W. The low will move WNW at around 10 kt across the S Mexico waters through Wed accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds. Increasing winds and building seas are expected as the low parallels the Mexican coast up to west of Baja California Sur by Sat. A Gale Warning is in effect from the entrance to the Gulf of California south to the waters offshore of Michoacan and Guerrero for this system, which has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next couple of days. Winds as high as hurricane force are possible with this system by Fri with seas to 18 ft. A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 15.5N121W, or about 800 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. This low is moving west at 5 to 10 kt, and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the western quadrant. Winds and seas may increase in association with this low, which has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information on both of these lows. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 115W, moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 110W and 113W. This wave is expected to be absorbed into the low to its west. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to low pressure near 13.5N98W to another low near 15.5N121W to a third low near 14N132W to beyond 11N140W. In addition to convection noted above with the lows near 98W and 121W, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N east of 95W, from 10N to 12N between 110W and 113W, and from 12N to 14N between 126W to 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. High pressure well northwest of the area will promote fresh to strong NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte through Wed. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce fresh to strong SE to S winds over the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is producing only gentle to moderate winds across the region for the next several days. A long-period SW swell will contribute toward combined seas up to 8 ft in the equatorial zones Wed and Thu. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the area through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area near 15.5N121W. A 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 14N132W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 126W to 133W. A weak ridge extends SE from 1020 mb high pressure near 31N132W down to 18N116W. Aside from the low mentioned above, NE tradewinds are gentle to fresh south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough. Southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will remain gentle to fresh. These winds should continue for the next few days, though the monsoon trough may lift northward to near 15N as the low near Mexico progresses west-northwestward. SW swell of up to 8 feet are reaching our southern border and will reach to about the equator from Tue to Thu. As the monsoon trough pulls northward, combined SW swell and wind waves south of the trough may produce seas of up to 10 ft Wed through Fri in an area centered roughly around 10N110W. $$ Landsea