000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0115 UTC Tue Aug 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure is located near 14N98W about 200 nm S of Oaxaca with numerous moderate and scattered strong thunderstorms within 270 nm all quadrants from the center. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring with this system, especially within about 210 nm in the SE semicircle. The system is moving WNW around 10 kt and this motion is expected to continue over the next several days, paralleling the coast. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding over Guatemala and southern Mexico this week. Winds and seas are expected to increase in association with this low, and a Gale Warning is in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for all Mexican offshore waters from Michoacan southward. Mid to late week, this low will likely impact the waters off Baja California Sur, likely bringing gale conditions, as winds could approach 50 kt, with seas of 12 to 18 ft. This low has a high chance of tropical storm formation Tuesday or Wednesday. A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 15N121W, or about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. This low is moving west at 5 to 10 kt, and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is located within about 240 nm in the SW semicircle. Early afternoon scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong winds in the SW semicircle from the center, generally north of 11N. Winds and seas may increase in associationwith this low, which has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information on both of these lows. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 113W, moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection 12N to 16N between 110W and 115W. This wave is expected to remain weak. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N82W to low pressure near 14N98W to another low near 15N121W to a third low near 14N131W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N and east of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 08N to 12N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area S in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. High pressure well northwest of the area will promote fresh to strong NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte through Tue night. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce moderate to fresh S winds over the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak N-S pressure gradient across Central America will induce moderate to fresh offshore winds in the Gulf of Papagayo sporadically through Fri. Otherwise, mainly moderate W to SW winds will prevail S of 10N. No significant long-period swell will affect the seas through Fri. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the area through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area near 13N120W. A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 14N131W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate convection is associated with this low within about 90 nm of the center in all quadrants. A weak ridge extends SE from 1019 mb high pressure near 36N133W down to 20N115W. Aside from the low mentioned above, NE tradewinds are gentle to fresh south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough. Southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will remain gentle to fresh. These winds should continue for the next few days, though the monsoon trough may lift northward to near 15N as the two lows progress west-northwestward. SW swell of up to 8 feet will reach the southern border of our area this evening, but only reach to about the equator on Tue. As the monsoon trough pulls northward, combined SW swell and wind waves south of the trough may produce seas of up to 10 ft Wed through Fri in and area centered roughly around 10N110W. $$ KONARIK