000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192058 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2025 UTC Mon Aug 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low pressure is located near 13N95W near the Gulf of Tehuantepec with numerous moderate and scattered strong thunderstorms within 210 nm all quadrants. Midday scatterometer passes as well as dropsonde data indicate fresh winds are also occurring within about 120 nm from the center in all quadrants. The system is expected to move WNW at around 5 kt accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds, moving across the S Mexico waters through Wed. Heavy rainfall from this low could produce flash flooding across parts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico over the next few days. Increasing winds and building seas are expected as the low parallels the Mexican coast, and a Gale Warning has been issued for offshore Mexican waters from Michoacan southward. Gale conditions may spread northward, eventually impacting waters offshore Baja California Sur by Friday, with winds over 40 kt and seas in excess of 12 ft possible. This low has a high chance of tropical storm formation in the next 2 days. A 1007 mb low pressure area is centered near 14N121W, or about 900 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California. This low is moving W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the SW semicircle. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to near 8 ft are forecast to accompany this low. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next couple of days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information on both of these lows. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 112W, moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 14N to 17N between 110W and 114W. This wave is expected to remain weak through the week. A tropical wave with axis around 132W contains a low center near 14N131W, drifting W at less than 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 131W and 134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to low pressure near 13N95W to another low near 14N121W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted north of 05N and east of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 07N to 11N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area S in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. High pressure well northwest of the area will promote fresh to strong NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte through Tue night. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce moderate to fresh S winds over the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak N-S pressure gradient across Central America will induce moderate to fresh offshore winds in the Gulf of Papagayo sporadically through Fri. Otherwise, mainly moderate W to SW winds will prevail S of 10N. No significant long-period swell will affect the seas through Fri. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the area through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area near 13N120W. A weak ridge extends SE from 1019 mb high pressure near 36N133W down to 20N115W. Aside from the low mentioned above, NE tradewinds are gentle to fresh south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough. Southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will remain gentle to fresh. These winds should continue for the next few days, though the monsoon trough may lift northward to near 15N as the two lows progress west-northwestward. SW swell of up to 8 feet will reach the southern border of our area this evening, but only reach to about the equator on Tue. As the monsoon trough pulls northward, combined SW swell and wind waves south of the trough may produce seas of up to 10 ft Wed through Fri in the vicinity of 10N110W. $$ KONARIK