000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1412 UTC Mon Aug 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low pressure is located near 13N93W near the Gulf of Tehuantepec with numerous moderate and scattered strong thunderstorms within 180 nm in the NW semicircle and 60 nm in the SE semicircle. The system will move WNW at around 5 kt accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds, moving across the S Mexico waters through Wed. Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. Increasing winds and building seas are likely as the low parallels the Mexican coast up to west of Baja California Sur by Fri. This low has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next couple of days. Winds are currently capped in the forecast at 30 kt and seas at 12 ft, though these may be increased significantly if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone. A 1007 mb low pressure area is located near 13N120W, or about 800 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California. The low is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the SW quadrant. Fresh to strong winds and seas of around 8 ft are forecast to accompany the low. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next couple of days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information on both of these lows. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 111W, moving W at around 5to 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in association with the wave. The wave is only - weakly - identifiable from the 700 mb model-based trough diagnostics. A tropical wave axis is near 132W, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 131W and 134W. The wave is identifiable via satellite-based scatterometer winds, a maximum in the total precipitable water imagery, and the 700 mb model-based trough diagnostics. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to low pressure near 13N93W to a second low pressure near 13N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located north of 05N and east of 88W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted north of 08N between 92W and 103W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the low at 13N120W in the SW quadrant. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area S in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. High pressure well northwest of the area will promote fresh to strong NW winds offshore of Baja California Norte through Tue night. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce moderate to fresh S winds over the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak N-S pressure gradient across Central America will induce moderate to fresh offshore winds in the Gulf of Papagayo sporadically through Fri. Otherwise, mainly moderate W to SW winds will prevail S of 10N. No significant long-period swell will affect the seas through Fri. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the area through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the low pressure area near 13N120W. A weak ridge extends SE from 1019 mb high pressure near 36N133W down to 20N115W. Aside from the low mentioned above, NE tradewinds are gentle to fresh south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough. Southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will remain gentle to fresh. These winds should continue for the next few days, though the monsoon trough may lift northward to near 15N as the two lows progress west-northwestward. SW swell of up to 8 feet will reach the southern border of our area this evening, but only reach to about the equator on Tue. As the monsoon trough pulls northward, combined SW swell and wind waves south of the trough may produce seas of up to 10 ft Wed through Fri in the vicinity of 10N110W. $$ Landsea