000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180110 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0051 UTC Sun Aug 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low pressure center is located near 12N92W this afternoon, or about 160 nm S of the coast of Guatemala. Circulation associated with this low is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within about 240 nm of the center, mainly over the NE semicircle, accompanied by gusty winds and heavy downpours. This activity is affecting coastal portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Chiapas in Mexico. This low is expected to move WNW through early at least Tuesday, bringing a potential for flash flooding over El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. This low is likely to strengthening, causing winds and seas to gradually increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala, Chiapas, and Oaxaca. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends from Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific along 87W. This wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt, but will likely slow down in forward motion over the next couple of days. Scattered strong convection associated with this wave is mainly located over Central America. A tropical wave axis is located along 103W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located in a broad area from 09N to 18N between 102W and 110W. A tropical wave axis is located along 118W, moving W around 5 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is located from 09N to 14N between 113W and 122W. Low pressure may form in association with this wave over the next few days as it drifts slowly westward. A tropical wave axis is located along 128W, moving W at 5 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 12N to 18N between 124W and 130W. Low pressure may form along 16N in association with this wave Sunday or Monday as it drifts slowly westward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N78W to low pres near 12N92W to 14N125W to 10N140W. Convection along the trough is mainly associated with the aforementioned tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge extends SW from the north-central Pacific into the Baja California offshore waters, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds to these waters. This ridge will generally remain in place into the middle of next week. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure over the western United States has led to strong winds offshore California, which has generated N swell that has propagated to northern parts of the waters offshore Baja California Norte. Seas at times through tonight in this area will reach 7 ft, before subsiding Sunday. The pressure gradient will increase again Monday and Tuesday, increasing NW winds to moderate to fresh. A low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula will support fresh S to SE winds over the northern Gulf tonight, before diminishing Sunday. Low pressure offshore Guatemala will move WNW over the next few days and spread showers, thunderstorms, and squalls into the waters in and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Easterly winds will increase to strong in association with this low, with seas building to near 8 ft. Please see the Special Features section above for details about this low pressure. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details about the area of low pressure offshore of Guatemala and associated heavy coastal rainfall. Offshore winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at times to fresh through early next week. Southerly swell will produce seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sunday into Tuesday. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds will prevail into early next week, along with seas of 4 to 6 feet. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the NW corner, with moderate winds or less elsewhere. Winds will diminish Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient slackens. Northerly swell N of 27N will lead to seas of 8 to 9 ft to the W of 125W through early Sun before decaying. $$ KONARIK