000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172044 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2040 UTC Sat Aug 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 mb low pressure center is located near 12N92W this afternoon, or about 160 nm S of the coast of Guatemala. Circulation associated with this low is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within about 240 nm of the center, accompanied by gusty winds and heavy downpours. This activity is affecting coastal portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This low is expected to move WNW through early next week, bringing a potential for flash flooding over El Salvador, Guatemala, and Chiapas in Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually increase across the offshore waters of El Salvador and southern Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from the Gulf of Honduras SSE across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, moving W of 10 to 15 kt. Scattered strong convection associated with this wave is mainly located over Central America. A tropical wave axis is located along 101W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located in a broad area from 10N to 17N between 100W and 107W. A tropical wave axis is located along 118W, moving W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection has developed from 08N to 13N between 113W and 121W. Low pressure may form in association with this wave early next week as it moves slowly westward. A tropical wave axis is located along 128W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 10N to 18N between 124W and 130W. Low pressure may form along 15N in with this wave early next week as it drifts westward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N78W to low pres near 12N92W to 14N125W to 10N140W. Convection along the trough is mainly associated with the aforementioned tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge extends SW from the north-central Pacific into the Baja California offshore waters, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds to these waters. This ridge will generally remain in place into the middle of next week. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure over the western United States has led to strong winds offshore California, which has generated N swell that has propagated to northern parts of the waters offshore Baja California Norte. Seas at times through tonight in this area will reach 7 ft, before subsiding Sunday. The pressure gradient will increase again early next week, increasing NW winds to moderate to fresh. A low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula will support fresh S to SE winds over the northern Gulf tonight, before diminishing Sunday. Low pressure offshore Guatemala will move WNW over the next few days and spread showers, thunderstorms, and squalls into the waters in and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Easterly winds will increase to strong in association with this low, with seas building to near 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details about the area of low pressure offshore of Guatemala and associated heavy coastal rainfall. Offshore winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at times to fresh through early next week. Southerly swell will produce seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds will prevail into early next week, along with seas of 4 to 6 feet. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the NW corner, with moderate winds or less elsewhere. Winds will diminish Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient slackens. Northerly swell N of 27N will lead to seas of 8 to 9 ft to the W of 125W through early Sun before decaying. $$ KONARIK