000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170112 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0046 UTC Sat Aug 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large surge of moisture will continue to support heavy rainfall across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras tonight and Saturday. Flash flooding and mudslides are the primary hazards with this rainfall. The focus of the heavy rain will gradually shift northward and also start to impact El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico this weekend. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring N of 07N and E of 95W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis near 94W extends southward across Chiapas into the eastern Pacific, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 87W and 95W, and is also impacting portions of Central America, as depicted above. Low pressure is likely forming in association with this wave, and is expected to move west- northward south of southern Mexico. A tropical wave axis is near 106W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 103W and 110W. A tropical wave axis is near 117W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 114W and 117W. A tropical wave axis is near 128W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 123W and 134W. Low pressure may form in association with this weekend or early next week as it moves slowly westward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N100W to 12N121W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 08N126W to 08N134W. All convection in the vicinity of these features is associated with the aforementioned tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds to the region. This ridge will generally remain in place through early next week. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure over the western United States has led to stronger winds north of the area, and these winds have generated swell that will may propagate to northern parts of the waters offshore Baja California Norte for the first part of the weekend. Seas at times will build to around 7 ft. Low pressure trough extending down the Baja California peninsula will support locally strong S and SE winds over the northern Gulf through Saturday, generating seas of around 6 ft. For the remainder of waters offshore Mexico, generally gentle winds will prevail through Saturday. Low pressure is likely to gradually form near or to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend and move westward or west north-westward offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. This will likely lead to fresh to possibly strong northeasterly winds developing in this area through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier fresh winds have diminished off the coast of Central America, and generally moderate winds will prevail into early next week, with seas of 4 to 6 feet expected. Low pressure is likely to form offshore the coast of Guatemala this weekend, leading to some increased easterly winds, before moving west and northwest away from the area by early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh E winds on the back side of a tropical wave, with axis moving west of 140W, are contributing to seas of 6 to 8 feet from 15N to 20N W of 135W. These seas will diminish as the waves moves away tonight. Across the remainder of the Pacific high seas areas, generally moderate winds or less will prevail. Northerly swell N of 29N will lead to seas of 8-9 ft to the east of 130W through Sat night. $$ KONARIK