000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162037 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2002 UTC Fri Aug 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large surge of moisture will continue to support heavy rainfall across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras today and Saturday. Flash flooding and mudslides are the primary hazards with this rainfall. The focus of the heavy rain will gradually shift northward and also start to impact El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico this weekend. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring N of 07N and E of 95W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis near 94W extends southward across Chiapas into the eastern Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 87W and 94W. Low pressure may form in association with this wave this weekend. A tropical wave axis is near 105W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 102W and 107W. A tropical wave axis is near 116W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 113W and 116W. A tropical wave axis is near 127W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 122W and 130W. Low pressure may form in association with this weekend. A tropical wave axis is near 140W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Little convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N100W to 12N121W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 08N126W to 08N134W. All convection in the vicinity of these features is associated with the aforementioned tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters, with midday scatterometer data continuing to indicate gentle to moderate NW winds in the region, with little change expected into early next week. Another scatterometer pass to the west indicates that the pressure gradient between low pressure over the SW US and the high pressure is producing some fresh to strong winds north of west of the area. Some of these winds may propagate too the northernmost Baja California Norte waters through week weekend. These winds are also generating an N and NW swell that is beginning to reach the Baja California Norte waters this afternoon. Seas at times will build to around 7 ft this weekend in association with this swell. Also, a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula is supporting fresh to locally strong SE winds over the northern Gulf, which will continue through Saturday, and generate seas of up to 6 ft. To the south across the remainder of offshore Mexico, generally gentle winds will prevail through the weekend. 16z scatterometer data depicted light to gentle breezes from variable directions offshore Jalisco to Acapulco. Low pressure may form and move into the waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sunday, leading to strengthening N to NE flow in the region early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh westerly winds on the back side of a tropical wave offshore Nicaragua and El Salvador, and an altimeter pass recorded seas of 5 to 7 in this region. These winds will persist and spread northward to offshore Guatemala through Saturday, and low pressure may form in the vicinity this weekend, before moving west and northwest away from the area early next week. Fresh to strong SW monsoon flow off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, evidenced by scatterometer data, will diminish tonight as a tropical wave approaches from the SW Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 7 feet generated by these winds will also subside. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh E winds on the back side of a tropical wave, with axis moving west of 140W, are contributing to seas of 6 to 8 feet from 15N to 20N W of 135W. These seas will diminish as the waves moves away tonight. Across the remainder of the Pacific high seas areas, generally moderate winds or less will prevail. Northerly swell N of 29N will lead to seas of 8-9 ft to the east of 130W through Sat night. $$ KONARIK