000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161446 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 UTC Fri Aug 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large surge of moisture will continue to support heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Nicaragua through the remainder of the week. Flash flooding and mudslides are the primary hazards with this rainfall. The focus of the heavy rain will shift northward and begin to affect parts of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala later today and tonight. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis near 93W extends southward across the Mexico/Guatemala border area into the eastern Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 86W and 93W. A tropical wave axis is near 104W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 101W and 106W. A tropical wave axis is near 115W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 113W and 115W. A tropical wave axis is near 126W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 121W and 127W. A tropical wave axis is near 139W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 138W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N102W to 12N120W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 08N126W to 08N134W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 105W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Gulf of California from 24N to 29N this morning. This convection should dissipate into the early afternoon hours. A broad high pressure ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Latest scatterometer data depicted gentle to moderate NW winds in this region, and similar conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend. Some fresh winds are possible off the coast of Baja California Norte due to increased pressure gradient from low pressure over the SW US and the aforementioned high. Stronger winds off the coast of the western US will produce a set of N and NW swell that will reach the Baja California Norte waters later today through the weekend. This will build seas to 7 ft this weekend. Deepening low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula will support fresh to strong SE winds over the northern Gulf later today through Sat, with seas building to around 6 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, gentle winds will prevail through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure may from near the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. This could lead to strengthening N to NE flow in the region during this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Easterly winds have diminished to gentle to moderate in the Gulf of Papagayo region as a tropical wave moves away from the area. Downstream of the Gulf, associated wave highs of 5 to 7 feet may continue into early this afternoon. Fresh SW monsoon flow will cause seas to remain at 6 to 8 feet off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica today. Broad low pressure may form offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador by early next week, which could lead to strengthening winds off the coast of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tropical wave with axis along 139W is enhancing winds and seas north of 16N and west of 132W. Fresh NE winds prevail in this area. Winds and seas will decrease during the next 24 hours. Generally moderate winds will prevail across much of the remainder of the Pacific high seas. Northerly swell will reach north of 29N this evening, causing seas of 8-9 ft through Sat night. $$ ERA