989 AXPZ20 KNHC 152045 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1959 UTC Thu Aug 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large surge of moisture will continue to support heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Nicaragua through the remainder of the week. Flash flooding and mudslides are the primary hazards with this rainfall. On Friday, the focus of the heavy rain will shift northward and begin to affect parts of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N and east of 97W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis near 91W extends southward across Guatemala into the eastern Pacific. This wave is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 88W and 95W. A tropical wave axis is near 103W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from from 06N to 15N between 100W and 108W. A tropical wave axis is near 114W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 108W and 114W. A tropical wave axis is near 124W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 119W and 124W. A tropical wave axis extending from 16N135W to 08N139W is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either side of the wave's axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N82W to 09N98W to 09N118W to 08N123W. The ITCZ is analyzed west of a tropical wave from 07N125W to 11N130W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection prevails from 05N to 15N and east of 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Midday scatterometer data continues to depict gentle to moderate NW winds in this region, and similar conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend. Some fresh winds are possible off the coast of Baja California Norte due to increased pressure gradient from low pressure over the SW US and the aforementioned high. Stronger winds off the coast of the western US will produce a set of N and NW swell that will reach the Baja California Norte waters later Friday through the weekend. This will build seas to 7 ft this weekend. Deepening low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula will support fresh to potentially strong SW winds over the northern Gulf late Friday through the weekend, with seas building to around 6 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, gentle winds will prevail through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure may from near the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. This could lead to strengthening N to NE flow in the region during this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will gradually diminish tonight as a tropical wave moves away from the area. Downstream of the Gulf, associated wave highs of 5 to 7 feet may continue into early Friday. Fresh SW monsoon flow will cause seas to remain at 6 to 8 feet off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica into early Friday. Broad low pressure may form offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador for the start of next week, which could lead to strengthening winds off the coast of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak surface low pressure is centered near 17N134W. Fresh to strong NW winds are located within 150 nm of the NW semicircle of this low center, according to 19Z scatterometer passes. Seas in this region are also around 8 ft. This low is forecast to continue moving west and will reach west of 140W by late Friday. Generally moderate winds will prevail across much of the remainder of the Pacific high seas. Northerly swell will reach north of 29N for the end of the week, causing seas of up to 8 ft. SW swell with seas of up to 8 ft may also approaching the equator this weekend. $$ KONARIK