000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 UTC Thu Aug 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large surge of moisture will continue to support heavy rainfall across Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua during the next couple of days. Flash flooding and mudslides will be the primary hazards during this event. On Friday, the focus of heavy rainfall will shift northward to Nicaragua, El Salvador, southern Honduras/Guatemala, and southern Chiapas Mexico. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N and east of 102W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis near 89W extends southward across Honduras and El Salvador into the eastern Pacific. This wave is moving west around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 88W and 95W. A tropical wave axis is near 100W, moving west around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 97W and 103W. A tropical wave axis is near 111W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 121W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 119W and 123W. A tropical wave axis extending from 17N135W to 10N137W is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the wave's axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N104W to 07N122W to 09N129W. ITCZ is analyzed west of a tropical wave from 12N137W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection prevails from 04N to 14N and east of 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Partial overnight scatterometer data depicted gentle to moderate NW winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro, as well as south of Los Cabos. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. The ridge will maintain gentle to moderate NW flow through the weekend, except occasionally fresh winds offshore of Baja California Norte and south of Punta Eugenia. Strengthening northerly winds off the California coast will produce a set of NW swell that will reach the Baja California Norte waters by Fri and continue through the weekend. This will build seas to 7 ft over the northern waters on Sat. In the Gulf of California, latest scatterometer data indicated light and variable winds across the area. A deepening low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula will support fresh to locally strong SE winds over the northern Gulf Fri through Sat, with seas building to around 6 ft. Fresh northerly winds funneling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish later this morning. Then, light to gentle winds will prevail through the weekend. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure may form south of Guatemala this weekend and slowly move northwestward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. This system could produce strengthening N to NE flow across the Gulf Sun night through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly winds will develop across the Gulf of Papagayo later today in the wake of a passing tropical wave. Associated wave heights will reach 6 to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Freshening SW monsoon flow will cause seas to build to 8 ft off the coast of Panama and Costa Rica today and tonight. Looking ahead, broad low pressure may form offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador this weekend, then slowly move westward early next week. This could result in strengthening winds off the coast of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak surface low pressure is centered near 16.5N132W. Strong winds are evident in the N semicircle of the low within 105 nm based on recent scatterometer data. Nearby altimeter passes show 8 ft seas near the center and within the broader NE flow between the low and high pressure centered NW of the region. The low is expected to move westward over the next 36 to 48 hrs and pass west of 140W Fri night. Expect fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly NW and N of the center through Fri. Overnight scatterometer data indicated the remnant low of Henriette has dissipated. Elsewhere, fresh southerly monsoon flow was noted in earlier scatterometer data from 02N to 06N between 88W and 94W. This surge of S winds will expand N into the Central American offshore waters later today. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the Pacific high seas. A set of N swell will spread south of 32N Fri through Sat, causing seas to briefly build to 8 ft north of 29N between 126W and 131W. $$ ERA