000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1410 UTC Wed Aug 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure is centered near 15N129W in the vicinity of a tropical wave extending from near 07N135W to 16N132W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the NW quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for some development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week before upper-level winds become unfavorable. This system retains a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOET/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N84W to 22N84W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 91W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N96W to 17N96W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 15N between 95W and 103W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 07N107W to 18N106W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 18N between 107W and 112W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N117W to 17N116W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 10N to 15N between 112W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1009 mb near 10N75W to 08N79W to 08N113W. The ITCZ continues from 08N113W to 09N122W. Another segment of the monsoon trough extends from 17N125W to low pres 1008 mb near 15N129W to 10N136W. The ITCZ continues from 10N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident within 120 nm in the NW quadrant of the low that is centered near 15N129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge is gradually building toward the Baja California offshore waters as the remnants of Henriette, currently centered near 22N118W, continue weakening. Scatterometer data from earlier this morning showed gentle to moderate NW winds along the Baja California coast north of Cabo San Lazaro. Several overnight altimeter passes indicated seas were generally running 4-6 ft off Baja California Sur. The ridge will support mainly gentle to moderate WNW flow through the weekend, except occasionally fresh winds offshore of Baja California Norte. Strengthening northerly winds off the California coast will produce a set of NW swell that will reach the Baja California Norte waters Fri into Sat. This will build seas to near 8 ft west of Guadalupe Island this weekend. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less will prevail through Thu. A deepening low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula will support fresh to strong SE winds over the northern Gulf Fri and Sat, with seas building to 6 ft. Fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form SE to S of Chiapas Mexico late this week, then pass S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system over the weekend while the system moves generally westward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo today and tonight, causing seas to build to between 6 and 8 ft during the strongest winds. Freshening SW monsoon flow will cause seas to build to 8 ft off the coast of Central America today through Thu, with lower winds and seas thereafter. Looking ahead, broad low pressure is expected to form offshore of Central America late this week, then shift WNW away from Central America this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclone development associated with broad low pressure near 15N129W. The remnant low of Henriette is analyzed near 22N118W and will continue drifting WNW until it dissipates tonight. No deep convection is associated with the system at this time. Recent scatterometer data highlights a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds roughly north of a line from 16N120W to 12N140W. Associated seas in this region generally range between 7 and 9 ft as evidenced in the latest altimeter data. Moderate to occasionally fresh NE trades will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate SE to S winds expected to continue south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Elsewhere, a set of northerly swell will spread S of 32N Fri through Sat, building seas to between 8 and 9 ft north of 28N between 123W and 132W this weekend. $$ CAM