612 AXPZ20 KNHC 140200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated trough of low pressure associated with a tropical wave extending from 07N130W to 18N125W has stalled, although should begin moving W-NW again at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 11N within 180 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week before upper- level winds become unfavorable. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOET/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a tropical wave from 07N130W to 18N125W. A tropical wave is along 81W N of 05N to near the Costa Rica/Panama border continuing across the western Caribbean Sea moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 90W. A tropical wave is along 95W N of 03N to near the Gulf of Tehuantepec region moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 90W and 99W. A tropical wave is along 113W from 04N to 17N W at 10 to 15 kt. Decaying scattered moderate convection is noted across a broad area from 08N to 14N between 107W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N95W to 11N110W to 16N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Associated winds and seas with the remnant low of Henriette are diminishing and subsiding SW of Baja California Sur as it continues to weaken and shift westward away from the offshore waters. Broad high pressure ridging will continue to build from NW to SE along the outer offshore waters boundary in the wake of this low through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This ridging will support mainly gentle to moderate W-NW flow W of 108W, except occasionally fresh offshore of Baja California Norte through the end of the week. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will subside through the remainder of the week. A set of NW swell will arrive offshore of Baja California Norte by early Sat, building seas back to up to 7 ft there through Sun. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less will prevail, except winds will become fresh to locally strong at SE to S over the northern Gulf of California Fri and Sat. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh northerly winds will pulse tonight and Wed night. Broad low pressure may form offshore of Central America this weekend, shifting W-NW towards the Gulf of Tehuantepec area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night, building seas to 6 to 8 ft during the strongest winds. Freshening SW monsoon flow will cause seas to build to 8 ft off the coast of Central America Wed through Thu, with lower winds and seas thereafter. Otherwise, seas will be 4 to 7 ft throughout the next several days. Broad low pressure may form offshore of Central America this weekend, shifting W-NW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a tropical wave from 07N130W to 18N125W. The remnant low of Henriette is noted near 22N116W at 1009 mb moving W at around 10 kt. The low is devoid of deep convection, and an earlier recent scatterometer pass showed winds of 20 kt or less. Seas near just below 8 ft are continuing to subside, and the low should complete dissipate sometime on Wed. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail N of the monsoon trough with broad ridging in place, with mainly moderate SE-S winds S of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell which prevail S of 20N and W of 120W will subside to 5 to 7 ft through the end of the week. Seas of mainly 4 to 6 ft prevail N of 20N per earlier altimeter passes. A set of northerly swell will spread S of 32N by early Fri through Sat building seas to 7 to 9 ft, subsiding Sun. $$ Lewitsky