000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated trough of low pressure associated with a tropical wave extending from 07N130W to 18N125W is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 90 nm either side of the wave axis N of 10N. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOET/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a tropical wave from 07N130W to 18N125W. A tropical wave is along 80W N of 05N to across central Panama and the western Caribbean moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 04N and E of 83W. A tropical wave is along 93W N of 03N to across extreme eastern Mexico moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 90W and 97W. A tropical wave is along 111W from 03N to 17N moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted across a broad area within 16N112W to 10N102W to 07N103W to 10N110W to 07N117W to 13N117W to 16N112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N100W to 15N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Associated winds and seas with the remnant low of Henriette are diminishing and subsiding SW of Baja California Sur as it continues to weaken and shift westward away from the offshore waters. Broad high pressure ridging will continue to build from NW to SE along the outer offshore waters boundary in the wake of this low through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This ridging will support mainly gentle to moderate W-NW flow W of 108W, except occasionally fresh offshore of Baja California Norte through the end of the week. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will subside through the remainder of the week. A set of NW swell will arrive offshore of Baja California Norte by early Sat, building seas back to up to 7 ft there through Sun. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less will prevail, except winds will become fresh at SE to S over the northern Gulf of California Fri and Sat. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh northerly winds will pulse tonight and Wed night. Broad low pressure may form offshore of Central America this weekend, shifting W-NW towards the Gulf of Tehuantepec area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night, building seas to 6 to 8 ft during the strongest winds. Freshening SW monsoon flow will cause seas to build to 8 ft off the coast of Central America Wed through Thu, with lower winds and seas thereafter. Otherwise, seas will be 4 to 7 ft throughout the next several days. Broad low pressure may form offshore of Central America this weekend, shifting W-NW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a tropical wave from 07N130W to 18N125W. The remnant low of Henriette is noted near 21.5N116W at 1009 mb moving W around 10 kt. The low is devoid of deep convection, and a recent scatterometer pass showed winds of 20 kt or less. Peak seas near 8 ft are subsiding. The low should complete dissipate sometime on Wed. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail N of the monsoon trough with broad ridging in place, with mainly moderate SE-S winds S of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell which prevail S of 20N and W of 120W will subside to 5 to 7 ft through the end of the week. Seas of mainly 4 to 6 ft prevail N of 20N per recent altimeter passes. A set of northerly swell will spread S of 32N by early Fri through Sat building seas to 7 to 9 ft, subsiding Sun. $$ Lewitsky