000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Henriette is centered near 20.7N 114.3W at 13/0300 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. After having its center mostly exposed this afternoon, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection has developed over the past few hours within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center in the S and SW quadrants. Henriette is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 21.2N 116.0W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to near 21.8N 118.4W Tue evening, to near 22.3N 121.0W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave with a northeast to southwest tilted axis that extends from near 05N127W to 13N125W and to 17N123W is also moving westward at 15-20 kt. Deep convection in the form of scattered moderate to strong intensity continues to increase within 60 nm of the wave from 13N to 14N. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis along 86W and north of 05N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave remains embedded in a very moist and unstable environment as indicated in the TPW satellite animation. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 07N to 09N. A tropical wave with axis extending along 106W from 04N to 16N is moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave also remains embedded in a broad area of deep moisture within an unstable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave axis. A tropical wave with a northeast to southwest tilted axis that extends from near 05N127W to 13N125W and to 17N123W is also moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Deep convection in the form of scattered moderate to strong intensity continues to increase within 60 nm of the wave from 13N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1006 mb low over northern Colombia near 10N75W westward to 10N88W to 11N101W to 10N109W and northwestward to 15N116W, then southwestward 12N126W and westward to 10N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 79W and 82W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 98W and 101W and within 60 nm of the trough between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 109W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is 60 nm of trough between 121W and 123W, within 60 nm south of trough between 128W and 138W and within 60 nm of trough between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Henriette and a tropical wave with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next few days. The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging west of Baja California and the climatological trough over and near the Baja California Peninsula is allowing for moderate northwest winds to continue over the Baja California offshore waters. Little change is expected in the present conditions through the rest of the week as high pressure remains west-northwest of the region. Fresh to northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue as weak high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico supports a modest pressure gradient across southern Mexico. Wind speeds will diminish beginning mid-week as the ridge weakens north of the region. Looking ahead, expect strengthening southeast winds to develop over the northern Gulf of California on Fri as a low pressure trough deepens near Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scatterometer data passed showed mostly fresh northeast to east winds funneling across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with some small pockets of strong winds. The pressure gradient across the western Caribbean Sea and Central America will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east winds to pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Wave heights to 9 ft this morning downstream of the Gulf have lowered to around 7 ft this afternoon. Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh speeds early Thu, to moderate speeds during Thu and to gentle to moderate speeds Fri. Altimeter data passes from this afternoon and evening continue to show that the southerly swell over the southern waters is in the process of decaying as wave heights there are in the range of 7 to 8 ft, mainly between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information regarding potential tropical cyclone development this week associated with the tropical wave that is along a position from 05N127W to 13N126W and to 17N123W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident roughly from about 12N to 23N and west of 120W according to the latest scatterometer data passes. Recent altimeter data passes over his region indicate seas are running 7-9 ft within this area of trades. Little change is expected over the next couple days as the pressure gradient remains nearly steady between the monsoon trough and high pressure centered north of the region. Another area of fresh winds is noted south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W near an active tropical wave. Mixed southeast and southwest swell is maintaining 8 to 9 ft seas south of the equator per latest altimeter data passes. This swell will gradually decay over the next couple days, allowing wave heights in this area to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. $$ Aguirre