000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1307 UTC Mon Aug 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Henriette is centered near 19.5N 110.9W at 12/1500 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the west semicircle and within 30 nm in the east semicircle. Tropical Storm Henriette near 19.7N 112.2W 1005 mb at 8 AM PDT moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Henriette will move to 20.2N 113.9W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 20.9N 116.1W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 21.4N 118.8W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N83W to 23N83W.. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 06N east of 82W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 04N104W to 16N104W is moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 15N between 101W and 109W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N124W to low pres 1008 mb near 11N125W to 16N124W is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 14N between 124W and 130W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for tropical cyclone development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while this system moves WNW around 15 kt. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N76W to 08N79W to 10N85W to 11N101W to 10N106W to 15N117W to 11N133W. The ITCZ extends from 11N133W to 13N137W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 14N between 90W and 96W, from 12N to 16N between 116W and 124W and from 09N to 12N between 130W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Henriette. Moderate NW flow prevails over the Baja California offshore waters, with locally fresh winds occurring near and north of Punta Eugenia per recent scatterometer data. Little change in offshore winds and seas is expected through the week as high pressure remains west-northwest of the region. Fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night as weak high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico supports a modest pressure gradient across southern Mexico. Wind speeds will diminish during the second half of the week as the ridge weakens north of the region. Looking ahead, expect strengthening SE flow to develop over the northern Gulf of California by Fri as a low pressure trough deepens near Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds funneling across the Gulf of Papagayo region. The pressure gradient across the western Caribbean Sea and Central America will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Wave heights will build to around 9 ft downstream of the Gulf today as southerly swell mixes with NE wind waves. Wind speeds will diminish to moderate speeds by late week. The latest altimeter data suggests southerly swell over the southern waters have begun decaying as wave heights have subsided to between 7 and 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information regarding potential tropical cyclone development this week associated with the tropical wave extending from 05N124W to low pres 1008 mb near 11N125W to 16N124W. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail from 12N to 23N and west of 120W according to the latest scatterometer data. Recent altimeter passes in this region indicate seas are running 7-9 ft within this area of trades. Little change is expected over the next couple days as the pressure gradient remains nearly steady between the monsoon trough and high pressure centered north of the region. Another area of fresh winds is noted south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W near an active tropical wave. Mixed SE and SW swell is maintaining 8 to 9 ft seas south of the equator, highest west of 115W according to the latest altimeter data. This swell will gradually decay over the next couple days, allowing wave heights in this area to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. $$ CAM