000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1351 UTC Sun Aug 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis extending from 07N78W to 22N77W is moving westward between 10 and 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed N of a line from 04N76W to 08N88W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N97W to 18N96W is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 90W and 93W and from 06N to 10N between 93W and 103W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N106W to low pres 1007 mb near 17N106W to 19N106W is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 20N between 105W and 111W. This disturbance is expected to move WNW off the SW coast of Mexico and bring locally heavy rainfall to the region. This system now has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 06N118W to 18N117W is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. The latest TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave remains embedded in a very moist environment. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 120 nm either side of a line from 17N112W to 10N127W. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of this week as the system moves WNW. This system retains a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 04N135W to 16N134W is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 09N to 12N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pres 1008 mb near 10N76W to 10N97W to low pres 1007 mb near 17N106W to 11N124W to 10N140W. There is no significant convection associated with the monsoon trough other than convection attributable to tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure remains off the southwestern coast of Mexico near 17N106W. Fresh winds are noted within the east semicircle, as well as along the Mexican coast near Manzanillo. This system is expected to move WNW during the next couple of days, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. Moderate NW flow prevails off the Baja California offshore waters, except winds are locally fresh near Punta Eugenia based on the most recent scatterometer data. The high pressure ridge driving these winds will remain in place through the middle of this week, with little change in offshore winds and seas expected. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this morning, then continue through Thu as a weak high pressure ridge persists over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas will peak near 7 ft each morning downwind from the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest scatterometer data shows a narrow swath of fresh easterly winds near the Gulf of Papagayo. The pressure gradient across the western Caribbean Sea and Central America will continue supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue night. Wave heights will build to between 8 and 9 ft each day in a mix of southerly swell and NE wind waves. Winds in this region will diminish to moderate speeds by mid week. Southerly swell is maintaining 8 to 9 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands according to the latest altimeter data. The swell have begun to decay and wave heights will gradually subside to below 8 ft by Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information regarding potential tropical cyclone development this week associated with a tropical wave presently near 118W. Moderate trade winds prevail south of 25N and west of 120W, or between the monsoon trough and high pressure centered near 31N137W. These winds will persist during the next several days as the high slowly drifts NNE. Scatterometer data indicates a small area of strong winds is present N of the monsoon trough from 11N to 13N and W of 137W. This area of winds will pass west of 140W by Mon morning. Moderate to fresh SE winds generally prevail south of 10N and west of 110W, with seas ranging between 6 and 8 ft as shown in recent altimeter passes. Mixed SE and SW swell is maintaining 8 to 10 ft seas south of the equator, with 8 ft seas reaching as far north as 06N near 100W based on recent altimeter data. This swell will gradually decay through early next week, allowing wave heights in this area to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. $$ CAM