000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1340 UTC Sat Aug 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 93W is moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this feature. A tropical wave with axis near 101W is moving westward around 15 kt. This wave remains embedded in a very moist environment per the latest TPW satellite imagery. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm of 17.5N103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere north of 10N between 100W and 104W. Environmental conditions could still favor some gradual development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. This area of disturbed weather retains a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave with axis near 115W is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is also embedded in a very moist environment based on the latest TPW satellite imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 10N to 14N between 111W and 120W. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation early next week as this system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt. This system also has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave with axis near 131W is moving westward around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates dry air N of 12N is inhibiting convection on the N side of this wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 10N to 12N between 128W and 133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pres 1009 mb near 09N75W to 10N88W to 12N94W to 1009 mb low pressure near 14N106W to 11N132W. The ITCZ extends from 11N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 79W and 91W, from 13N to 18N between 106W and 110W and from 08N to 11N between 134W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong SE winds are blowing over the central Gulf of California between higher pressure over inland Mexico and a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula. Winds in this area will diminish Sun as the high over interior Mexico weakens. Fresh winds along with showers and thunderstorms will likely continue along the SW coast of Mexico over the next couple days as a tropical wave along 101W tracks WNW. See the Tropical Waves section above for more information. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters between the trough over the peninsula and high pressure centered well offshore near 30N137W. This high will slowly drift N through early next week, with little change in offshore wind and sea conditions expected. Fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun through Tue. Combined seas will remain less than 8 ft over the southern waters, despite long period SE and SW swell continuing to propagate across the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across the western Caribbean Sea and Central America will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night. Seas will build to 8 ft on Mon in mixed southerly swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, expect moderate SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mixed SE and SW swell continues spreading northward across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, with seas 8 ft or greater across the waters south of the equator. Combined seas of 8 to 11 ft in this area today will subside to below 8 ft by Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information regarding potential tropical cyclone development early next week. Weak low pressure is noted in animated satellite and scatterometer imagery near 14N106W. This feature is expected to move WNW and dissipate tonight. New low pressure is expected to develop near 12.5N115.0W tonight then head WNW. This system will gradually acquire an associated area of strong winds and 8 ft seas during the next couple of days, primarily in the S quadrant. Farther north, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 30N137W and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 20N. These winds will persist for the next several days as high pressure drifts northward. A significant southern hemisphere swell event continues over the southern waters. Recent altimeter data revealed 8 to 11 ft seas south of the equator roughly between 82W and 120W, with 8 ft seas reaching as far north as 04N. The swell will propagate northward through the weekend, then gradually decay early next week, allowing wave heights to subside across the region. $$ CAM