000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0919 UTC Sat Aug 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 92W is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is located over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize. A tropical wave with axis near 99W is moving westward around 10 kt. This wave remains embedded in a very moist environment per the latest TPW satellite imagery. Recent scatterometer data indicates the low to mid-level cyclonic circulation noted in satellite imagery along the wave does not extend to the surface at this time. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 15N between 97W and 102W. Environmental conditions could favor gradual development during the next couple days. This area of disturbed weather has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave with axis near 113W is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also embedded in a very moist environment based on the latest TPW satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 109W and 113W. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation early next week, and there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation with this feature through the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave with axis near 128W is moving westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 10N90W to 13N99W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13.5N106W to 09N133W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 85W, and within 90 nm west semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm south of the ITCZ west of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scatterometer data from 05 UTC showed a narrow swath of fresh to locally strong SE winds over the central Gulf of California between higher pressure over inland Mexico and a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula. Wind speeds over the northern Gulf will remain fresh through tonight, then diminish Sun through early next week. Farther south, scatterometer data revealed a small area of fresh to strong E winds just off the coast of Puerto Angel associated with a nearby tropical wave. Fresh winds will likely continue as the disturbance tracks west- northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple days. See the Tropical Waves section above for more information. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters between the trough and high pressure centered well offshore near 29N138W. This high pressure center will slowly drift northward through early next week, with little change in offshore wind and sea conditions expected. Fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning on Sun and continuing through the middle of next week. Combined seas will remain less than 8 ft over the southern waters, despite long period southerly swell continuing to propagate across the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across the western Caribbean Sea and Central America will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Seas will build to 8 ft on Mon in mixed southerly swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, expect moderate southwest flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the monsoon trough through early next week. Southerly swell continues spreading northward across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, with seas 8 ft or greater across the waters south of the equator. Significant wave heights will remain 6-9 ft through Sun, then gradually subside through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information regarding potential tropical cyclone development early next week. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh winds in the southeast quadrant of low pressure centered near 13.5N106W along the monsoon trough. The latest satellite imagery and lightning data indicates scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm west semicircle of the low. This feature is expected to move northwestward and weaken over the next couple days. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is noted on overnight scatterometer passes south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ west of 125W, with seas peaking around 8 ft per available altimeter data. Farther north, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 29N138W and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 20N. These winds will persist for the next several days as high pressure drifts northward. A significant southerly swell event continues over the southern waters. Overnight altimeter data revealed 8-11 ft seas south of the equator roughly between 95W and 105W, with 8 ft seas reaching as far north as 02N. Swell will propagate northward through the weekend and then gradually decay early next week, allowing wave heights to subside across the region. $$ Reinhart