889 AXPZ20 KNHC 091552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 09 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 12N. A tropical wave is along 95W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 knots. This wave remains embedded in a very moist environment per latest TPW satellite imagery. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 14N to 16N. This area of disturbed weather has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next five days. Please read the latest eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave is along 108W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N to 15N. A tropical wave is along 124W/125W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 13N103W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the center in the western quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between 98W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through 08N78W in Panama, to 08N81W, to 14N95W, to the 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 13N103W, to 11N117W and 10N129W. The ITCZ continues from 10N129W to 09N135W, beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to the S of the monsoon trough between 111W and 118W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 180 nm to the S of the monsoon trough from 123W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm to the N and within 150 nm to the S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 126W westward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 32N115W 30N114W 23N110W in the area of Baja California. The most recent scatterometer data in the northern Gulf of California show fresh to locally strong southerly flow, to the east of the trough. The winds in this region are expected to remain fresh through Saturday night, and then diminish from Sunday into early next week. Scatterometer data elsewhere indicate that gentle to moderate NW flow persists in the Baja California offshore waters, between the trough and a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 30N138W. This high pressure center will remain nearly stationary through early next week, with little change in offshore wind and sea conditions. Looking ahead: fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, beginning on Sunday, and continuing through early next week. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the southern waters, with another set expected to propagate through the region from Saturday night through early next week. The sea heights for the combined seas will remain less than 8 feet. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across the western Caribbean Sea and Central America will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Moderate SW flow will persist south of the monsoon trough, elsewhere, with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms expected off the coast of Central America. Overnight altimeter data reveals 8-9 ft seas in southerly swell to the south of the Galapagos Islands. The sea heights will remain 8 feet or greater, between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the weekend, and then subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section, for more information about the medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through early next week, well off the southwestern coast of Mexico. A surface ridge persists across the forecast waters north of 20N. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trade winds occurring between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. More to the east: moderate to fresh southerly winds were noted south of the monsoon trough roughly from 07N to 10N between 109W and 115W. Elsewhere: gentle to moderate winds prevail across the high seas domain. Overnight altimeter data supports 8-9 ft seas south of the equator in mixed SE and SW swell. Southerly swell will continue to propagate northward through the weekend, reaching as far north as 08N/09N between 96W and 130W by Sunday. the sea heights will subside through early next week as the swell decays across the region. $$ mt