000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0920 UTC Fri Aug 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis near 86W extending north of 05N to the western Caribbean Sea is moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A tropical wave with an axis near 94W is moving westward around 10 kt. This wave remains embedded in a very moist environment per latest TPW satellite imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N within 90 nm of the wave axis. This area of disturbed weather has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave with an axis near 106W is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N within 120 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave with an axis near 121W is moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N94W to 11N100W to 13N106W to 11N124W. The ITCZ extends from 11N124W to 08N134W to 11N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N east of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 109W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 128W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data over the northern Gulf of California shows fresh to locally strong southerly flow occurring east of a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula. Winds in this region are expected to remain fresh through Sat night, then diminish Sun into early next week. Elsewhere, scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate NW flow persists over the Baja California offshore waters between the trough and high pressure centered near 30N139W. This high pressure will remain nearly stationary through early next week, with little change in offshore wind and sea conditions. Looking ahead, fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sun and continue through early next week. Long period southerly swell will continue impacting the southern waters, with another set expected to propagate through the region Sat night through early next week. However, combined seas will remain less than 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across the western Caribbean and Central America will continue supporting fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Elsewhere, moderate SW flow will persist south of the monsoon trough with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected off the coast of Central America. Overnight altimeter data reveals 8-9 ft seas in southerly swell south of the Galapagos Islands. Seas will remain 8 ft or greater between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the weekend, then subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information on the medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through early next week well off the southwestern coast of Mexico. A high pressure ridge persists across the forecast waters north of 20N. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trade winds occurring between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Farther east, moderate to fresh southerly winds were noted south of the monsoon trough roughly from 07N to 10N between 109W and 115W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the high seas domain. Overnight altimeter data supports 8-9 ft seas south of the equator in mixed SE and SW swell. Southerly swell will continue propagating northward through the weekend, reaching as far north as 08N-09N by Sun. Seas will subside through early next week as the swell decays over the region. $$ Reinhart