000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090222 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 09 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 85W north of 05N to inland Central America and to the western Caribbean Sea. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over northern Costa Rica, and over much of Honduras and Nicaragua. No deep convection is occurring over water with this wave. A tropical wave has its axis along 93W from 04N to 16N, moving westward about 10 kt. This wave is embedded in a very moist surrounding atmospheric environment per latest TPW satellite animation. Last visible satellite imagery showed low-level clouds rotating cyclonically in an elongated fashion, with support from the monsoon trough associated wind flow, into this wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm west of the wave axis north of 14N to the western sections of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. This activity is likely to bring heavy rainfall over the mountainous areas of those countries. A tropical wave has its axis along 106W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at an estimated 24 hour speed near 15 kt. This wave is moving through an atmosphere of consisting of very deep moisture. Similarly as stated above with the above tropical wave axis along 93W, last visible satellite imagery showed low- level clouds rotating cyclonically in an elongated fashion, with support from the monsoon wind flow, across this wave. The satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong strong convection within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 10N to 13N, and within 30 nm west of the wave axis from 11N to 14N. The broad cyclonic gyre that consists of the tropical waves with axes along 93W and 106W respectively is presently characterized as an area of disturbed weather. It is forecast to produce a low pressure area during the next couple of days or so. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, MIATWOEP, for more details and formation chances for this forecast feature. A tropical wave has its axis along 120W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm either side of the wave axis where it crosses the monsoon trough and south from there to near 07N. A tropical wave axis is west of the area along 142W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present from 11N to 14N west of 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low over northern Colombia west-northwestward from there to across central Panama to and continuing to across northern Costa Rica, then westward to 12N98W to 10N104W to 11N110W to low pressure near 10N124W 1011 mb and to 11N126W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N132W and to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 97W and 100W. Similar activity is within 60 nm south of the trough between 123W and 131W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 135W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure will remain over these waters through this upcoming weekend, with little change in wind and sea conditions. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the typical trough found near and across the Baja California Peninsula will allow for generally gentle to moderate southeast to south winds to continue across the Gulf of California through at least Sat, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh speeds over the northern Gulf of California beginning on Fri afternoon and lasting through Sun. Wave heights will build up to 5 ft over the northern part of the Gulf of California on Fri. Long-period southwest swell currently propagating through these waters will begin to mixed with a southeast swell component on Fri and through Sat, however, resultant combined wave heights will remain less than 8 ft. The earlier deep convective activity depicted as scattered strong type intensity, that was over the southern Gulf of California has moved northwest and north and weakened to scattered moderate to isolated type intensity from 25N to 29N and from 108W west to just inland the Baja California Peninsula. Stronger convection, of scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong type, is increasing as it lifts northward over northwestern Mexico from 26N to 32N between 108W and 111W. This activity is being driven by strong southerly winds that are present in the southwestern sector of a mid to upper-level anticyclone located over central Texas. A mid-level disturbance riding along these southerly winds is helping to enhance this activity. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri evening and increase to strong while expanding west and southwest in coverage on Sat. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through next couple of days. Long-period southwest swell will continue to propagate through Sat building wave heights to a max of near 9 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected High pressure remains over the forecast waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds continue from 13N to 20N W of 135W, where the pressure gradient is enhanced between a 1022 mb high pressure center that is analyzed near 30N138W, and a tropical wave just to the west of 140W. Gentle to moderate winds continue over much of the remaining waters north of the monsoon trough. To the south of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh southerly winds continue due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the eastern part of the area. These winds are providing assistance with surface convergence, producing active weather south of the monsoon trough. Long- period mixed southeast and southwest swell generated from the southern hemisphere will continue to propagate through these waters into the upcoming weekend. The wave heights will generally be less than 8 ft until late tonight, when higher wave heights will propagate across the Equator. The area of seas greater than 8 feet will expand northward to about 10N between 95W and 125W beginning late on Sat. $$ Aguirre