000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 08 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 84W north of 05N to inland Central America and to the western Caribbean Sea. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the axis from 05N to 08N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere within 60 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis along 92W from 04N to 16N, moving westward about 10 kt. This wave is embedded in a very moist surrounding atmospheric environment per latest TPW satellite animation. Latest visible satellite imagery shows low-level clouds rotating cyclonically in an elongated fashion, with support from the monsoon trough associated wind flow, into this wave. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 09N to 11N and within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 11N to 16N. Some of this activity is expected to move onshore the coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua tonight and Fri, likely to bring heavy rainfall to the mountainous areas of those countries. This wave will closely be monitored for the potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next few days as low pressure is expected to form from it. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, MIATWOEP, for more details. A tropical wave has its axis along 105W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at an estimated 24 hour speed near 15 kt. This wave is moving through an atmosphere of consisting of very deep moisture. Similarly as stated above with the above tropical wave axis along 92W, latest visible satellite imagery shows low-level clouds rotating cyclonically in an elongated fashion, with support from the monsoon wind flow, across this wave. The satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong strong convection occurring within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 10N to 13N, while scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave axis from 13N to 17N. A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm either side of the wave axis where it crosses the monsoon trough and south from there to near 07N. The tropical wave that previously had its axis along 138W/139W from 05N to 17N has moved to just west of the area near 141W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are present from 10N to 14N west of 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1012 mb low over northern Colombia to 09N79W and northwestward from there to across southern Costa Rica and continuing to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, then west-southwestward to 10N92W and northwestward to 12N100W to 13N109W to 11N116W to low pressure near 10N124W 1012 mb and to 10N128W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 10N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 95W and 100W. Similar activity is within 60 nm of the 1012 mb low in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 93W and 95W, and also from 06N to 09N between 124W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure will remain over these waters for the rest of this week, with little change in wind and sea conditions. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the typical trough found near and across the Baja California Peninsula will allow for generally gentle to moderate southeast to south winds to continue across the Gulf of California through at least Sat, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh speeds over the northern Gulf of California beginning on Fri afternoon. Wave heights will build up to 5 ft over the northern part of the Gulf of California on Fri. Long-period mixed southwest swell currently propagating through these waters will begin to mixed with a southeast swell component on Fri and through Sat, however, resultant combined wave heights will remain less than 8 ft. The earlier deep convective activity depicted as scattered strong type intensity, that was over the southern Gulf of California has moved northwest and north and weakened to scattered moderate to isolated type intensity from 25N to 29N and from 108W west to just inland the Baja California Peninsula. Stronger convection, of scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong type, is increasing as it lifts northward over northwestern Mexico from 26N to 32N between 108W and 111W. This activity is being driven by strong southerly winds that are present in the southwestern sector of a mid to upper-level anticyclone located over central Texas. A mid-level disturbance riding along these southerly winds is helping to enhance this activity. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri evening and increase to strong while expanding west and southwest in coverage on Sat. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through next couple of days. Long-period southwest swell will continue to propagate through Sat building wave heights to a max of near 9 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains over the forecast waters N of 20N. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds continue from 13N to 20N W of 135W, where the pressure gradient is enhanced between a 1022 mb high pressure center that is analyzed near 30N138W, and a tropical wave just to the west of 140W. Gentle to moderate winds continue over much of the remaining waters north N of the monsoon trough. To the south of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh southerly winds continue due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the eastern part of the area. These winds are providing assistance with surface convergence, producing active weather south of the monsoon trough. Long- period mixed southeast and southwest swell generated from the southern hemisphere will continue to propagate through these waters into the upcoming weekend. The wave heights will generally e less than 8 ft until late tonight, when higher seas will push across the Equator. The area of seas greater than 8 feet will expand northward to about 10N between 95W and 125W beginning late on Sat. $$ Aguirre