000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 031 UTC Thu Aug 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis from 06N80W to 20N80W, moving W around 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave over the Pacific. A tropical wave has an axis from 04N89W to 16N89W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 85W and 94W. A tropical wave has an axis from 03N99W to 15N99W, moving W between 15 and 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 15N between 94W and 113W. This tropical wave will continue to be closely monitored for the potential for tropical cyclone formation this weekend into early next week when conditions become more favorable for development. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives the system a 50 percent chance for tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave has an axis from 04N117W to 15N116W, moving W between 15 and 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 11N between 113W and 125W. A tropical wave has an axis from 06N136W to 16N134W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 10N to 14N between 130W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W to 11N101W to 09N123W to 11N135W to 10N140W. Outside of convection in the vicinity of the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 11N between 125W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California this week with little change in wind and sea conditions. A surface trough over the Baja Peninsula will generally maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the Gulf of California through the forecast period. Long period SE and SW swell will gradually decay through Thu, and another set will arrive Thu night. However, combined seas will remain less than 8 ft. Several tropical waves will pass through the waters offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas through the weekend, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become fresh Sun. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. A fresh set of long period SW swell will move into the southern waters later this week. This will cause seas to build to between 6 and 9 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thu night through Sun night. Several tropical waves will pass through the waters off Central America through the weekend, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Wind waves will combine with long period SW swell to maintain seas around 8 ft S of the monsoon trough from 06N to 10N between 96W and 110W tonight, then winds and seas will subside. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from 13N to 20N west of 135W will diminish tonight as the pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave weakens as the associated tropical wave moves farther west. Otherwise, high pressure centered N of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. S of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh southerly wind continues and will prevail through the week due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the southeast Pacific. Long period SW and SE swell generated from the southern hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters. Seas will generally be below 8 feet until late Thursday when higher seas will push across the equator. Then the area of seas greater than 8 feet will expand northward to around 10N between 95W and 125W Sat night through Mon. $$ CAM