000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2033 UTC Wed Aug 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis from 06N79W to 20N78W, moving W around 20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave over the Pacific. A tropical wave has an axis from 04N89W to 16N89W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 94W. A tropical wave has an axis from 03N99W to 15N99W, moving W between 10 and 15 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within 90 nm of 09N105.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 07N to 15N between 94W and 111W. This tropical wave will continue to be closely monitored for the potential for tropical cyclone formation this weekend into early next week when conditions become more favorable for development. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives the system a 50 percent chance for tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave has an axis from 04N116W to 15N115W, moving W between 15 and 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection was present from 08N to 11N between 111W and 122W. A tropical wave has an axis from 06N136W to 16N134W, moving W between 15 and 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 09N to 12N between 134W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1012 mb near 09N75W to 11N101W to 10N120W to 12N130W to 11N138W. Outside of convection in the vicinity of the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis between 122W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California this week with little change in wind and sea conditions. A surface trough over the Baja Peninsula will generally maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the Gulf of California through the forecast period. Long period SE and SW swell will gradually decay through Thu, and another set will arrive Thu night. However, combined seas will remain less than 8 ft. Several tropical waves will pass through the waters offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas through the weekend, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become fresh Sun. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. A fresh set of long period SW swell will move into the southern waters later this week. This will cause seas to build to between 6 and 9 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thu night through Sun night. Several tropical waves will pass through the waters off Central America through the weekend, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh easterly winds from 13N to 20N west of 135W will diminish tonight as the pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave weakens as the associated tropical wave moves farther west. Otherwise, high pressure centered N of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. S of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh southerly wind continues and will prevail through the week due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the southeast Pacific. Long period SW and SE swell generated from the southern hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters. Seas will generally be below 8 feet until late Thursday when higher seas will push across the equator. These seas greater than 8 feet could reach as far as 10N this weekend. $$ CAM