000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071334 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1330 UTC Wed Aug 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection was noted N of 06N between 84W and 92W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 04N to 16N, moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection was noted N of 06N between 93W and 102W. This tropical wave will continue to be closely monitored for the potential for tropical cyclone formation this weekend into early next week when conditions become more favorable for development. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives the system a 40 percent chance for tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 05N to 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 11N between 111W and 118W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 135W from 05N to 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 13N between 131W and 137W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 11N101W to 09N117W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Outside of convection in the vicinity of the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection was noted within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 118W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California this week with little change in wind and sea conditions. A surface trough over the Baja Peninsula will generally maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the Gulf of California through the forecast period. Long period SE and SW swell will gradually decay through Thu, and another set will arrive Thu night. However, combined seas will remain less than 8 ft. Several tropical waves will pass through the waters offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas through the weekend, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become fresh Sat night and Sun night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. A fresh set of long period SW swell will move into the southern waters later this week. This will cause seas to build to between 6 and 9 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thu night through Sun night. Several tropical waves will pass through the waters off Central America through the weekend, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the forecast waters N of 19N. Moderate to fresh easterly wind from 15N to 20N west of 135W will diminish some through tonight as the pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave weakens as the wave moves farther west. For the remainder of waters north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail, with morning altimeter passes showing seas of 4 to 6 ft common. S of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh southerly wind continues and will prevail through the week due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the southeast Pacific. Long period SW and SE swell generated from the southern hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters. Seas will generally be below 8 feet until late Thursday when higher seas will push across the equator. These seas greater than 8 feet could reach as far as 10N this weekend. $$ KONARIK