000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Wed Aug 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W N of 04N, moving W 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
N of 07N between 84W and 90W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W N of 03N, moving W around
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted N
of 07N between 92W and 96W. This tropical wave will be one to 
watch with interest for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis
when conditions start to become more favorable this weekend into
early next week. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives the 
system a 30 percent chance for tropical cyclogenesis within the 
next five days. Please refer to the latest eastern north Pacific 
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 04N to 18N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted from
08N to 10N between 107W and 111W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 04N to 18N, moving
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted from 08N to 12N between 132W and 135W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 11N101W to 08.5N117W 
to 12N130W to 09N140W. Outside of convection in the vicinity of 
the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted within 210 nm S of the monsoon trough between 96W and
103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 114W and 126W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja 
California this week with little change in wind and sea 
conditions. A surface trough over the Baja Peninsula will 
generally maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the Gulf
of California through the forecast period. Long period SE and SW
swell will gradually decay through Thu, and another set will 
arrive Thu night. However, combined seas will remain less than 8 
ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become fresh Sun.
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough through the forecast period. A fresh set of long 
period SW swell will move into the southern waters later this 
week. This will cause seas to build to between 6 and 9 ft between
the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thu night through
Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the forecast waters N of 20N. The 
remnant low of Gil has weakened to a trough. The overnight ASCAT 
pass indicated moderate to fresh winds from 15N to 20N west of
135W, in the enhanced pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the trough. Moderate to fresh winds were also noted
from 15N to 20N between 130W and 135W, where a tighter pressure
gradient exists between the area of high pressure and a tropical
wave. Outside of these areas, gentle to moderate winds prevail N
of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of the
monsoon trough, driven by the pressure gradient between strong
southern hemispheric high pressure, centered over the south
eastern Pacific, and the monsoon trough. Long period SW and SE 
swell generated in the southern hemisphere continues to propagate
across the forecast waters. Seas are as high as 8 feet from 05N 
to 10N between 90W and 100W. This set of long period swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere will decay through Thu, before another 
set of long period southerly swell propagates into the region 
beginning on Thu night. Seas greater than 8 ft associated to the
next swell will push across the equator late Fri, and reach as
far north as 10N by late Sun. 

$$
AL