000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051513 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1513 UTC Mon Aug 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 86W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 100W and 105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 116W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N107W to 12N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 81W, from 11N to 14N between 88W and 91W, and from 16N to 19N between 102W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 127W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge prevails across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula, producing gentle to moderate NW flow over the adjacent offshore waters as supported by recent ship observations. This ridge will prevail across the waters through the week, with little change in wind and sea conditions. Southerly swell will continue impacting the waters south of Cabo San Lazaro while gradually subsiding through mid week. Another set of long period southerly swell will reach the southern waters by Thu, but combined seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh Tue through Thu, with seas building to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough near the Gulf of Papagayo region for the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will prevail north of the trough. Seas will build greater than 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed night through Fri as a fresh set of long period, southerly swell propagates into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Gil is centered near 15.5N129W. Associated winds have diminished to 20 kt or less based on overnight scatterometer data, with peak seas analyzed to 8 ft. Seas will fall below 8 ft by tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail within the enhanced gradient between this ridge and the remnants of Gil. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds continue across the high seas domain. Southerly swell remains across much of the region east of 125W. Altimeter data from 07 UTC showed 8-9 ft seas south of the equator along 112W/113W, and 12 UTC data reveals 8 ft seas as far north as 05N along 101W. Seas will build to 8-9 ft roughly from 04N to 08N between 93W and 103W on Tue as the swell propagates northward and mixes with locally generated wind waves associated with a surge in the monsoon flow. Looking ahead, another set of long period southerly swell will propagate across the equator by mid week and spread northward across the area. $$ Reinhart