000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0231 UTC Sat Aug 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie has moved W of the area into the Central Pacific basin and is centered near 17.9N 141.0W at 03/0300 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the forecast waters within 420 nm in the NE quadrant of Flossie. While Flossie has made the forecast move across 140W, outer Tropical Storm force winds still extend E of 140W into the area and thus a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Flossie will continue to shift away from the area and associated outer conditions will diminish and subside E of 140W by Sat night into early Sun. See the latest forecast/advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HFOTCMCP2/WTPA PHFO for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W from 05N to 17N, moving W around 15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure area is along the wave axis near 14N119W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 240 nm E of the wave axis from 07N to 15N. In addition to the convection, fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas to 8 ft will accompany the low and wave, mainly in the NE quadrant. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 11N90W to 09N105W to low pressure near 14N119W to 09N128W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 300 nm S of the axis E of 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 99W and 102W, and also from 10N to 14N between 105W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging will dominate the waters west of Baja California through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished, however winds may still pulse to fresh with nocturnal drainage flow tonight into early Sat. Southerly swell will propagate in to the waters S of 20N early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the trough. Southerly swell will propagate into the waters between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun, and continue to spread northward through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Flossie is currently forecast to shift W of 140W tonight, shifting further from the forecast waters through the weekend. Seas over the forecast waters that were generated by Flossie will subside below 8 ft by late Sat night. An area of southerly swell will propagate northward, reaching the equator this weekend, then reaching to near 10N early next week, assisted by freshening southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. $$ Lewitsky