000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022126
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 2 2019

Updated Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 17.5N 139.5W at 02/2100 UTC
moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
in the NE semicircle and 60 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere 420 nm in
the E quadrant, within 90 nm in the SE quadrant and within 210 nm
elsewhere of the center. Flossie will cross 140W and move into
the central Pacific basin in the next few hours, and will
gradually weaken through the next few days. See the final NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
for more details. Future information on Flossie can be found in 
forecast/advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane 
Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HFOTCMCP2/WTPA PHFO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 05N to 17N, moving
W around 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure area is along the wave
axis near 13N117W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm of the low center, and elsewhere
within 420 nm in the S quadrant of the low. In addition to the
convection, fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas to 8 ft
will accompany the low and wave, mainly in the NE quadrant.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 11N90W to 09N106W
to low pres near 13N117W to 08N127W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is within 300 nm S of the axis E of
96W, from 12N to 16N between 98W and 101W, and also from 08N to
13N between 105W and 111W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pres ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California
through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing, however winds may 
still pulse to fresh with nocturnal drainage flow tonight into 
early Sat. Southerly swell will propagate in to the waters S of 
20N early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of
the trough. Southerly swell will propagate into the waters 
between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun, and 
continue to spread northward through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more 
information on Tropical Storm Flossie.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the forecast waters N 
of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds 
prevailing. Flossie is currently forecast to shift W of 140W 
tonight, shifting further from the forecast waters through the 
weekend. Seas over the forecast waters that were generated by 
Flossie will subside below 8 ft by late Sat night.

An area of southerly swell will propagate northward, reaching the
equator this weekend, then reaching to near 10N early next week,
assisted by freshening southerly winds S of the monsoon trough.

$$
Lewitsky