000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021523
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1441 UTC Fri Aug 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 17.1N 137.8W at 02/1500 UTC
moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm E 
and 45 nm W semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 20N between 133W and 
139W. Flossie is forecast to maintain its current intensity 
today before starting to weaken this weekend. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
for more details. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 04N to 16N, moving
W around 15 kt. A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 13N116W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
11N to 17N between 114W and 119W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N107W to low near 
13N116W to 09N124W. ITCZ is analyzed beyond 13N140W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical wave/low described above,
scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on either side of 
the monsoon trough mainly E OF 110W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja 
California through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly gap
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this afternoon.
Southerly swell will propagate in to the waters S of 20N early 
next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of
the trough. Southerly swell will propagate into the waters 
between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun, and 
continue to spread northward through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more 
information on Tropical Storm Flossie.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the forecast waters N 
of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds 
prevailing. Flossie is currently forecast to shift W of 140W 
tonight into Sat morning, shifting further from the forecast 
waters through the weekend. Seas over the forecast waters that 
were generated by Flossie will subside below 8 ft by Sun 
morning.

An area of southerly swell will propagate northward, reaching the
equator this weekend, then reaching to near 10N early next week,
assisted by freshening southerly winds S of the monsoon trough.

$$

ERA