000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Fri Aug 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 16.8N 136.4W at 02/0900 UTC
moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm E 
and 30 nm W semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 131W and 
137W. Flossie is forecast to maintain its current intensity today
before starting to weaken this weekend. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 04N to 18N, moving
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 111W and 120W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 10N100W to 10N121W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 
nm S of the monsoon trough E of 86W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 210 nm S of the monsoon trough
between 91W and 109W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja 
California through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly gap
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this afternoon.
Southerly swell will propagate in to the waters S of 20N early 
next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of
the trough. Southerly swell will propagate into the waters 
between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun, and 
continue to spread northward through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more 
information on Tropical Storm Flossie.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the forecast waters N 
of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds 
prevailing. Flossie is currently forecast to shift W of 140W 
tonight into Sat morning, shifting further from the forecast 
waters through the weekend. Seas over the forecast waters that 
were generated by Flossie will then start to subside, subsiding 
below 8 ft by Sun morning.

An area of southerly swell will propagate northward, reaching the
equator this weekend, then reaching to near 10N early next week,
assisted by freshening southerly winds S of the monsoon trough.

$$
AL