315 AXPZ20 KNHC 020235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0231 UTC Thu Aug 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 16.4N 134.8W at 02/0300 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection within 75 nm in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the S semicircle, and 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Flossie has recently strengthened with both microwave and conventional satellite imagery indicating the presence of an eye, partially open on the W side. Flossie is now forecast to become a minimal hurricane by early Fri, then will gradually weaken through the weekend as it moves W of 140W into the central Pacific basin. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is from 04N to 17N along 117W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 12N123W to 17N113W to 10N110W to 04N114W to 12N123W. Weak and broad low pressure may be developing along the wave axis tonight, with associated winds on the NE side increasing to 20 kt, which will support building seas of 8-9 ft. These winds and seas will continue mainly on the NE side as the wave and possible low shift westward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N100W to 12N117W to 10N125W, then resumes from 12N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm S of the axis and E of 84W, within 120 nm S of the axis between 86W and 108W, and also within 120 nm N of the axis between 100W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through early next week, maintaining light to moderate NW winds over the Pacific waters N of 20N. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will prevail in a narrow plume over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri afternoon. These winds will manage to temporarily build seas up to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. Long period S to SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will produce seas of 5-7 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Flossie is currently forecast to shift W of 140W Fri night into Sat morning, shifting further from the forecast waters through the weekend. Seas over the forecast waters that were generated by Flossie will then start to subside, subsiding below 8 ft by Sun morning. An area of southerly swell will propagate northward, reaching the equator this weekend, then reaching to near 10N early next week, assisted by freshening southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. $$ Lewitsky