000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 16.0N 133.2W at 01/2100 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 240 nm in the E semicircle, 150 nm in the SW quadrant and 0 nm in the NW quadrant. Gradual weakening is expected during the next two to three days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is from 05N to 16N along 116W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 12N122W to 18N110W to 07N110W to 04N114W to 12N122W. Weak and broad low pressure may develop along the wave axis tonight, with associated winds on the NE side increasing to 20 kt which will support building seas of 8-9 ft. These winds and seas will continue mainly on the NE side as the wave and possible low shift westward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N79W to 09N100W to 12N116W to 10N120W to 11N124W, then resumes from 12N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection within 180 NM S of the axis, east of 98W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 90W and 92W, from 11N to 15N between 97W and 102W, and from 05N to 11N between 101W and 106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through early next week, maintaining light to moderate NW winds over the Pacific waters N of 20N. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will prevail in a narrow plume over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri afternoon. These winds will build seas up to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. Long period S to SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will produce seas of 5-7 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Flossie is currently forecast to shift W of 140W Fri night into Sat morning, shifting further from the forecast waters through the weekend. Seas over the forecast waters that were generated by Flossie will then start to subside, subsiding below 8 ft by Sun morning. An area of southerly swell will propagate northward, reaching the equator this weekend, then reaching to near 10N early next week, assisted by freshening southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. $$ Lewitsky