000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011518
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1510 UTC Thu Aug 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 15.1N 131.6W at 01/1500 UTC
moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Numerous moderate scattered 
strong convection was noted within 150 nm E and 75 nm W 
semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was 
noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 125W and 134W. The 
current forecast maintains the intensity of Flossie at 55 kt 
through the weekend as the system moves on a WNW track before the
system starts to weaken Sun night. See the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, moving W near 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with 
this wave is noted from 06N to 15N between 108W and 119W. This 
tropical wave will be one to watch with interest for the 
potential of tropical cyclogenesis over the next several days. 
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N104W to 13N114W to
12N124W, then resumes W of Flossie from 12N132W to 11N138W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 
90W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja 
California through early next week, maintaining light to 
moderate NW winds over the Pacific waters N of 20N. Fresh 
northerly gap winds will prevail in a narrow plume over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the 
monsoon trough. Long period S to SW swell from the Southern 
Hemisphere will produce seas of 6 to 8 ft between the coast of 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more 
information on Tropical Storm Flossie.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the forecast waters N 
of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds 
prevailing. Large swell generated from Flossie will maintain an 
area of seas 8 ft or greater up to few hundred miles to the north
of the center as it moves across the forecast waters. Flossie is
currently forecast to shift W of 140W Friday night into Saturday
morning. Flossie will continue to shift further from the 
forecast waters through the weekend. Seas over the forecast 
waters that were generated by Flossie will then start to subside,
falling below 8 ft by Sun morning.

$$

ERA