000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0850 UTC Thu Aug 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 14.7N 130.2W at 01/0900 UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 90 nm E and 45 nm W semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 126W and 131W. The current forecast maintains the intensity of Flossie at 55 kt through the weekend as the system moves on a WNW track before the system starts to weaken Sun night. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W, moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this wave is noted from 08N to 16N between 108W and 115W. This tropical wave will be one to watch with interest for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis over the next several days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 07N97W to 12N123W, then resumes WSW of Flossie from 12N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 03N E of 80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through early next week, and will generally maintain light to moderate NW winds over the Pacific waters N of 20N. Fresh northerly gap winds will pulse to strong in a narrow plume over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. Long period S to SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will produce seas of 6 to 8 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Large swell generated from Flossie will maintain an area of seas 8 ft or greater up to few hundred miles to the north of the center as it moves across the forecast waters. Flossie is currently forecast to shift W of 140W Friday night into Saturday morning. Flossie will continue to shift further from the forecast waters through the weekend. Seas over the forecast waters that were generated by Flossie will then start to subside, falling below 8 ft by Sun morning. $$ AL