000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010259 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 01 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 14.3N 128.8W at 0300 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds have diminished slightly to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring within 120 nm NE and 30 nm SW semicircles, while scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 270 nm E semicircle and 500 nm SW quadrant. Upper level NW wind shear helped to weaken Flossie this afternoon, with the low level center briefly exposed and void of deep convection on the W side. However, convection has built over the center in the past few hours as wind shear appears to have abated. Some modest fluctuations in intensity is expected during the next 48 hours as Flossie continues moving WNW towards the Hawaiian Islands. Flossie is expected to strengthen and regain hurricane strength over the weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 112W is moving W near 15 kt and producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms spanning from 07N to 16.5N between 104W and 117W. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low moves westward or WNW at about 15 mph. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75W TO 08N94W TO 11N105W TO 12N121W, then resumes WSW of Flossie from 11N130W TO 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 79W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of a broad weak ridge to the NW of the area and a surface trough over the Baja Peninsula will support light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California through the end of this week. Otherwise, The weak ridge over the waters west of Baja California will generally maintain light to moderate NW winds over the Pacific waters N of 20N through Sun night. Fresh northerly gap winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Fri in conjunction with nocturnal drainage flow. These gap winds will be confined within a narrow plume. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo today, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Winds across the region are then expected to diminish modestly into the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate opposing winds are expected on either side of the monsoon trough through Sunday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Flossie. A ridge extends across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California, centered on a 1023 mb high near 32N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Erick and Flossie south of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds north of 18N west of 120W. Flossie will move WNW through Fri and pass due south of the high, expanding the strong easterly winds to N of 20N Thu night and Fri. Additionally, large swell generated from Flossie will maintain an area of seas 8 ft or greater up to few hundred miles to the north of the center as it moves through the region this week. Elsewhere, seas of 8 ft in mixed swell from Erick linger W of a line from 14N to 20N west of 139W. These high seas will shift west of 140W during the next several hours as Erick moves farther away. $$ Stripling