000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1351 UTC Wed Jul 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Flossie centered near 14.0N 125.8W at 1500 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring in the E semicircle within 210 nm and in the W semicircle within 60 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere in the E semicircle within 300 nm and in the W semicircle within 90 nm. Flossie is expected to continue moving WNW for the next few days and strengthen. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N109W to 16N108W, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms spanning from 08N to 15N between 106W and 118W. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low moves westward or WNW at about 15 mph. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N72W to 07N81W to 11N109W to 11N120W, then resumes WSW of Flossie from 10N120W to 11N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 77W and 85W, from 06N to 09N between 99W and 106W and from 08N to 12N between 125W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh northerly gap winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Fri in conjunction with nocturnal drainage flow. The gap winds will be confined within a narrow plume. A surface trough over the Baja Peninsula will support light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California through the end of this week. Otherwise, A weak ridge over the waters west of Baja California will generally maintain light to moderate NW winds over the Pacific waters N of 20N through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo today, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate opposing winds are expected on either side of the monsoon trough through Sunday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Flossie. A ridge extends across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California from a 1024 mb high near 32N139W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and hurricanes Erick and Flossie south of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds north of 18N west of 120W. Flossie will move WNW through Thu and pass due south of the high, expanding the strong easterly winds to N of 20N Thu night and Fri. Additionally, large swell generated from Flossie will maintain an area of seas 8 ft or greater up to few hundred miles to the north of the center as it moves through the region this week. Elsewhere, seas of 8 ft in mixed swell from Erick linger W of a line from 14N to 20N west of 139W. These high seas will shift west of 140W this afternoon as Erick moves farther away. $$ CAM