000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310919
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Flossie centered near 13.5N 124.4W at 0900 UTC moving 
WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is occurring within 120 nm NE and 
30 nm SW semicircles, while scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is elsewhere within 240 nm NE and 90 nm SW of the 
center. Flossie is expected to continue moving WNW for the next 
few days and strengthen. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 05N to 16N, moving 
W at 15 kt. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms from 07N to 14N between 104W and 111W. 
Environmental conditions may become conducive for development 
later this week as the system continues to move west, away from 
the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives 
this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation 
through 5 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N104W TO 12N118W, 
then resumes SW of Flossie from 10N126W to 13N139W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N and 
90 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 92W and 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California 
through Fri. Fresh northerly gap winds will pulse to strong each 
night in a narrow plume in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. 
Active weather associated with a tropical wave along 108W will 
affect the outer offshore waters from Acapulco to Manzanillo 
today. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh offshore gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo today, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to 
moderate opposing winds are expected on either side of the 
monsoon trough through Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Please see Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Flossie.

A ridge extends across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja 
California from a 1024 mb high near 35N139W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and hurricanes Erick and Flossie 
south of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds north 
of 18N west of 115W. Flossie will move WNW through Thu and pass 
due south of the high, expanding the strong easterly winds to N 
of 20N Thu night and Fri. Additionally, large swell generated 
from Flossie will increase seas 8 ft and greater a few hundred 
miles to the north as it moves through the region this week.

Elsewhere, seas of 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell from Erick prevail 
W of a line from 13N to 20N west of 138W. These high seas will 
shift west of 140W in association with with Erick today. 

$$
Mundell