000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Flossie centered near 12.8N 122.6W at 0300 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring within 75 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles, while scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere within 180 nm NE and 150 nm SW quadrants. A line of strong convection is also evident trailing southwest of the storm, within 90 nm N and 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 124W and 137W. Flossie is expected to continue moving WNW for the next few days and gradually strengthen, likely becoming a major hurricane by late Thu. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W-106W between 04N and 17N, moving W at near 15 kt. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, from 06.5N TO 17N between 102W AND 110W. Upper-level winds could become marginally conducive for development late this week while the system accelerates westward, and away from the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 06.5N79W TO 09.5N106W TO 12N114W, where it breaks, then resumes SW of Flossie from 11N124W TO 10.5N128W TO 14N138W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm N and 90 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 91W and 99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Fri. This will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through at least Fri. Active weather associated with a tropical wave along 105W-106W will affect the outer offshore waters from Acapulco to Manzanillo through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Flossie. A ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California, centered on a 1024 mb high near 35N139W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones (Erick and Flossie) moving westward south of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds mainly north of 18N west of 115W. Flossie will move WNW tonight through Thu and pass due south of the high, expanding the strong easterly winds of 20 kt and greater to just N of 20N late Thu and Fri. Additionally, strong easterly swell being generated from Flossie will propagate seas 8 ft and greater a few hundred miles north and northwest as it moves through this region this week. Elsewhere, seas of 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell from Erick prevail W of a line from 20N140W TO 17N137W TO 10N140W. These seas will shift westward with Erick through Wed, leaving wave heights falling below 8 ft between 130W and 140W on Wed. $$ Stripling