000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Flossie centered near 12.3N 121.3W at 2100 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring within 60 nm of center, while scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere within 240 nm SE and 210 nm SW quadrants. A line of strong convection is also evident trailing southwest of the storm, from 08N to 11N between 124W and 131W. Flossie is expected to begin moving more WNW for the next few days and continue to gradually strengthen, likely becoming a major hurricane late Wed or Thu. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W between 04N and 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, from 07.5N TO 17N between 98W AND 110W. Upper-level winds could become marginally conducive for development late this week while the system moves quickly westward, away from the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 06.5N79W TO 09.5N106W TO 10.5N116W, where it breaks, then resumes SW of Flossie from 11N124W TO 10.5N128W TO 13N136W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 180 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 77W and 97W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Fri. This will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through at least Fri. Active weather associated with a tropical wave along 104W will affect the outer offshore waters from Puerto Angel to Manzanillo through midday Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Flossie. A ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N west of Baja California, centered on a 1025 mb high near 34N139W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones (Erick and Flossie) moving westward south of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds mainly north of 18N west of 115W. Flossie will move more WNW tonight through Thu and pass due south of the high, expanding the strong easterly winds of 20 kt and greater to just N of 20N late Thu and Fri. Additionally, strong easterly swell being generated from Flossie will propagate seas 8 ft and greater a few hundred miles north and northwest as it moves through this region this week. Elsewhere, seas of 8 to 11 ft in mixed swell from Erick prevail W of a line from 21N140W TO 18N135W TO 08N140W. These seas will shift westward with Erick through Wed, leaving wave heights falling below 8 ft between 130W and 140W on Wed. $$ Stripling