000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1555 UTC Tue Jul 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Flossie centered near 12.2N 120.5W at 30/1500 UTC
moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing within 120 nm
NW semicircle and 180 nm SE semicircle. A line of convection is
also evident trailing southwest of the storm, from 08N to 11N
between 122W and 128W. Flossie is expected to strengthen to a
hurricane later today. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W between 04N and 16N, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred 
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Upper-level winds could become 
marginally conducive for development late this week while the 
system moves quickly westward, away from the coast of Mexico. The
latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance 
of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Segments of the monsoon trough extend from 07N77W to 12N112W to 
11N112W, and from 11N124W to 12N136W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of
the monsoon trough axis east of 85W, and within 240 nm either
side of axis between 100W and 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja
California through Fri. This will maintain gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week. Farther
south, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through at least Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong gap winds will prevail across and extend
well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and
early morning hours through Wed, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft 
range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are 
expected south of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Please, see Special Features section for more information on 
T.S. Flossie.

An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of 8 to 9 ft
between 15N and 20N west of 135W. These seas were on the northern
periphery of Hurricane Erick, centered west of the area near 
13.4N 142.8W at 15 UTC. These seas will diminish below 8 ft
through Wed as Erick continues to move westward, just ahead of
the advance of Flossie. 

Elsewhere, a ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N 
west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and a couple of tropical cyclones moving westward south of the 
ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds mainly north of 15N
west of 115W.

$$
Christensen