000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 345 UTC Tue Jul 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 12.2N 119.3W at 30/0900 UTC moving W at 14 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm S semicircle of center, and 60 nm NE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong is seen elsewhere from 09N to 13N between 116W and 122W. Flossie is expected to strengthen to a hurricane later today, and then is forecast to become a major hurricane Wednesday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Upper-level winds could become marginally conducive for development late this week while the system moves quickly westward, away from the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. A 1009 mb low pressure, previously associated with a tropical wave, is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 11N123W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 12N between 122W and 127W. The low will likely become absorbed across the southern portion of Flossie during the next day or so. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N95W to 11N112W, then resumes W of T.S. Flossie from 11N121W to 12N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N between 79W and 83W, and within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough between 87W and 97W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California the remainder of the work week, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. On Fri, winds will slightly increase to 15 to 20 kt N of Punta Eugenia as the pressure gradient tightens some there. A narrow plume of fresh to strong northerly winds is expected across the Tehunatepec region and downwind to near 12N by early Wed morning, and again early Thu morning. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. This will result in moderate to fresh southerly winds across far north portions of the Gulf through this morning. Elsewhere mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail today, and then light and variable winds the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on T.S. Flossie. T.S. Erick was upgraded to minimal hurricane status at 30/0300 UTC. At this time, Erick was centered near 12.7N 140W, and the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on Erick can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0900 UTC. Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds from 09N to 16N W of 137W between the ridge and the cyclonic circulation associated with hurricane Erick located just W of area. Seas generated by this tropical cyclone will continue to affect the west-central waters over the next 24-36 hours. Elsewhere, a ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N W of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a couple of tropical cyclones moving westward S of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds mainly N of 15N W of 118W. $$ GR