000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Erick is centered near 12.7N 140.0W at 0300 UTC moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles, while scattered moderate to strong is found elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 136W and 140W. Erick continues to strengthen, and could potentially become a major hurricane late Tuesday or Wednesday. A weakening trend is forecast to then begin by Wednesday night. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 12.3N 117.8W at 0300 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center, while scattered moderate to strong is found elsewhere from 08N to 14.5N between 112W and 121W. Flossie is forecast to move westward overnight and continue to gradually strengthen, then reach hurricane force by Tuesday afternoon and begin a more WNW motion towards the Hawaiian Islands for the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W-101W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 14N between 96W and 106W. The tropical wave previously analyzed near 124-125W has become stretched NW to SE over the past few days and is no longer well defined. An associated surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough near 10.5N122.5W, estimated at 1007 mb, drifting ESE. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm E and 240 nm W semicircles of the low. The low will likely become absorbed across the southern portion of Flossie during the next few days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 09.5N99W TO 10.5N107W, then resumes from 11N120W TO low pres near 10.5N122.5W to 14N131W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 180 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, producing gentle to moderate winds. Fresh to strong gap winds prevailing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have begun to diminish and will pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight and early morning hours hours in a very narrow plume through Thu night. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. This will result in fresh southerly winds across far north portions of the Gulf through Tue morning. Elswhere mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through Tue, and then light and variable winds the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Erick, and T.S. Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N W of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a couple of tropical cyclones moving westward S of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds mainly N of 15N W of 118W. $$ Stripling