000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292137 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 12.7N 138.4W at 2100 UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles, while scattered moderate to strong is found elsewhere from 08N to 16N between 135W and 140W. Erick continues to strengthen, and is expected to become a hurricane in the next several hours, and potentially a major hurricane late Tuesday or Wednesday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by Wednesday night. Please see latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 12.5N 116.2W at 2100 UTC moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 75 n NW and 60 nm SE semicircles, while scattered moderate to strong is found elsewhere from 08.5N to 15.5N between 114W and 119W. Flossie is forecast to move westward overnight and continue to gradually strengthen, then reach hurricane force by Tuesday afternoon and begin a more WNW motion towards the Hawaiian Islands for the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 16N between 95W and 106W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 124-125W from 06N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 14.5N between 121W and 126W. Satellite imagery suggests that this wave has been stretched NW to SE over the past few days and is no longer well defined. Also seen in satellite imagery is a surface low near 11N121W, estimated at 1009 mb, drifting ESE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 09.5N99W TO 10.5N107W, then resumes from 11N118W TO 14N128W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm N and 180 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, producing gentle to moderate winds. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight and early morning hours hours in a very narrow plume through Thu night. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds through Tue, and then light and variable winds the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across and extend well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see Special Features section for more information on T.S. Erick, and T.S. Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge prevails across the forecast waters N of 20N W of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a couple of tropical cyclones moving westward S of the ridge will result in moderate to fresh winds mainly N of 15N W of 118W. $$ Stripling